It’s become very popular over the last few years to speculate how close society might be to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). What AGI actually means is murky, and often-debated, but mentioning AGI is usually a good jumping-off point for discussions of future artificial intelligences’ capabilities. Many following the field maintain AGI timelines, rigorous guesses for the probability of this mythical intelligence to emerge at future points. Those in the know might ask you for your timelines over coffee, classifying them as “long” – that it might be a decade or two before AIs are smart enough to take all of our jobs – or “short” – that it could happen any day now.